Tuesday, February 04, 2020

Calorie Deficits Made Simple(r)

Is fat loss complicated? You could say yes or no. It depends on how you look at it. The law of energy balance says that if you eat fewer calories than you burn, you have a calorie deficit (negative energy balance), and you will lose weight. That still leaves some questions like how to make sure the weight lost is fat, not muscle, and how large of a deficit, (which you'll learn below), but overall, the calorie deficit concept is pretty simple on the surface, right?

Well, some years ago, scientists from the UK dug as far down into the research as they could and came up with something called an obesity systems map. It illustrated what they described as, "A complex web of societal and biological factors that have, in recent decades, exposed our inherent human vulnerability to weight gain."

In the middle, the chart showed energy balance, surrounded by over 100 variables - biological, psychological, environmental and social - which all directly or indirectly influence that equation (how many calories you eat and how many calories you burn). Given that, losing body fat suddenly sounds complicated!

The diagram - which was shared all over the weight loss community - made getting fat look so easy and likely, and losing fat look so hard and unlikely, and the whole process look so thorny and convoluted, it was enough to make some people say, "If it's so complicated and the odds so stacked against us, then why even try?"

Some people who questioned the energy balance concept looked at it and said, "See - it's not just about calories!" Others wondered, "Do we really even know for sure how weight loss works?" Actually, yes we do, and today, we know better than ever because thousands of studies prove it. 


Fat loss works on a basic law of thermodynamics: A calorie deficit causes weight loss.

Consider this: On the obesity systems map, showing endless loops of cause and effect, "Energy balance" was still right there in the middle, and everything pointed back to it. The scientists who created the model were not saying weight loss isn't based on the simple concept of having a calorie deficit, they were confirming it.

They were not trying to discourage you either, only communicate the idea that if you really want to deep dive into the science and psychology, obesity can certainly appear complex, and there are dozens of factors that can affect whether you achieve and maintain a calorie deficit (and many of them stack the deck against you).

They were also telling us that energy balance is dynamic. Part of the challenge is that a calorie deficit can be a moving target that's hard to hit if you don't have a good system for knowing how much to eat, how much to exercise - and how to adjust your nutrition and training plan over time.

I'm not trying to say obesity isn't a complex problem or imply that solving it is easy, but I am here to show you that if you want to lose fat, you don't have to worry about knowing all the underlying mechanisms because fat loss can be broken down to the most important priorities and fundamentals and turned into a simple, practical action plan. Sure, there may be 100 different factors involved, but the basic concept of the calorie deficit and how to set your deficit for fat loss is simple and can be explained in 3 steps.

Step 1. Acknowledge that a consistent calorie deficit is what causes fat loss. 


Until you acknowledge that the calories in versus calories out equation is what determines whether you gain or lose weight, and you organize your nutrition and training strategies around that premise, you will struggle to get lean and stay lean, and always feel frustrated and confused about it.

A common scenario is, someone loses the fat with their diet of choice, but never knows the real reason it worked. They attribute their success to the wrong cause, and perhaps, spread that mistaken information to others (becoming one of those "weird, annoying, unscientific fad diet people").

Many fad diet promoters come up with novel ideas about why their programs work. "It's the specific foods you eat, not how many calories you eat," and "It's hormones, not calories" are common themes. These hooks are necessary to sell a diet, because "just eat less than you burn" isn't marketable. "Magical or exotic foods and hormonal manipulation" are.

The irony is that when a diet strategy does affect hormones, it's still a matter of calories in the end. For example, if your nutrition (or lifestyle) strategies reduce hunger hormones, you end up eating less. Hormones were involved, but guess what? You ate less, so you've come full circle back to the calories in versus calories out equation.

If an ill-advised crash diet tactic lowers your metabolism-stimulating hormones, what "lower metabolism" means is that you burn fewer calories. Again, it's full circle to energy balance. Hormones can change the equation, but the equation is still there.

If you improve the quality of the food you eat, that's fantastic, but if you eat fewer refined foods, and eat more natural foods, you almost always eat fewer calories automatically because of your better food choices. Food choices do matter - for health and fat loss - but for the fat loss part, again, it comes full circle back to the calorie equation.

For perspective, remember also that it's harder to overeat unprocessed food, but you can still get fat eating 100% healthy food if you're in a calorie surplus. And conversely, there are many cases studies of people losing fat on junk food diets that were low in calories (confirmed deficit).

Many diet gurus will tell you that calories don't matter for fat loss and they explicitly instruct you not to count calories, but then they turn around and give you a list of diet rules and restrictions which end up putting you in a deficit anyway, even though you didn't track your calorie intake. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but that's also not saying calories don't matter. Whether you count calories and achieve a calorie deficit, or you don't count calories and achieve a calorie deficit, either way, the result is the same – a calorie deficit, and fat loss.

Maybe even more concerning than the calorie denialism, fad diets are notorious for demonizing and banning all kinds of foods without a scientific reason. This has brought us an epidemic of eating disorders, orthorexia, and fear of food. The amount of carbo-phobia out there, alone, is disturbing.

Different people have success on a wide variety of diets. Low carb diets for example, are still trending and may work well. The danger is in assuming that popular diets have magical properties or their effectiveness has nothing to do with calories. This leads to the continued spread of myths and misinformation (such as "carbs turn to fat") and is why nutrition confusion is rampant.

The table below illustrates these points. I'm not posting this to pick on any particular diet or discourage anyone from trying different approaches to find the eating style that works best for them. But advocates of popular diets would do themselves and others more good by realizing how their diet is helping them control their calories. When diets work, they work because they create a calorie deficit.

How Popular Diets Work For Fat Loss:
Diet NameWhy People Think It WorksWhy It Really Works
Ketogenic Diet Cuts carbs so low that ketosis is reached, which puts you in fat burning mode.Creates a calorie deficit
Low Carb Diet Lowers insulin levels which stops fat storage & allows fat to be released from cells.Creates a calorie deficit
Low Fat DietDietary fat is stored as body fat so eating less fat leads to lower body fat.Creates a calorie deficit
Intermittent FastingReleases growth hormone, improves insulin sensitivity, increases metabolism.Creates a calorie deficit
Paleolithic Diet Modern processed foods turn to fat, eating foods our ancestors ate burns fat.Creates a calorie deficit
Gluten-Free, Wheat-Free DietWheat & gluten-containing foods convert to body fat more easily, create hormone imbalances.Creates a calorie deficit
Weight WatchersUsing a point system leads to guaranteed fat loss.Creates a calorie deficit
Nutri-SystemEating special pre-packaged meals increases fat loss.Creates a calorie deficit
Meal Replacement ShakesSpecial supplemental drinks burn more fat.Creates a calorie deficit

2. To find a good starting point for finding a deficit customized for your needs, use the percentage method (minus 15% - 30%) 

The first step is to calculate your maintenance level calories. This is easy to estimate by plugging your height, weight, and activity stats into any calorie calculator (The Harris Benedict calculator, for example, is one of the most popular). You can also figure out (or confirm) your actual maintenance level with a short period of strict food tracking and weighing yourself.

Once you know your maintenance (usually averages 2100 to 2300 per day for women, and 2600 to 2900 for men - a little higher for big and heavy folks), you drop your calorie intake target below your maintenance, to create your deficit.

How much of a calorie deficit do you need? The general answer is, not too small, or your weight loss will be slow and frustrating, but not too big, or your weight loss will be fast, but cause suffering and side effects.

The old way to set a deficit is based on the 3500 calories in a pound of fat model. If this figure is accurate, then to lose a pound a week, you need to cut your calories below maintenance by 500 calories per day (3,500 per week). To lose two pounds per week, you need to cut your calories by 1000 per day below maintenance (7000 per week).

This classic formula can be useful for estimating the size of calorie deficit you need to lose certain amount of weight each week, but the downside is that it's not customized. Using the old "minus 500" or "minus 1000" method could cause some people to choose a deficit that's too big and others to choose a deficit too small. In relative terms, a 1000-calorie deficit could be an unhealthy starvation diet for one person, or perfectly reasonable and healthy for another.

For example, if you're a large and highly active male with a 3400-calorie per day maintenance level, then a 1000-calorie deficit means a daily caloric intake of 2400 calories per day, a 30% deficit (aggressive, but well within reason).

If you're a petite, inactive female with a maintenance level of only 1900 calories per day, then a 1000-calorie deficit means a caloric intake of 900 calories per day, a 53% deficit (semi-starvation).

The solution is simple. Instead of using absolute deficits like minus 500 or 1000 calories, use a percentage deficit. This way, your deficit is relative to your total calorie expenditure, and it's customized for you.

Based on decades of research on safe, sustainable, and healthy rates of fat loss, a deficit between 15% and 30% below maintenance is ideal.

15-20% below maintenance calories = conservative deficit
20-25% below maintenance calories = moderate deficit
25-30% below maintenance calories = aggressive deficit

Within this range, you can decide for yourself whether you want to eat little less and go for faster weight loss by choosing an aggressive deficit, or eat a little more and be content with slower weight loss using a more conservative deficit. If you're not sure either way, then looking at your body fat level can help you choose.

If your starting body fat is high, then you have lower risk of losing lean tissue so it's okay to choose a more aggressive deficit and go for faster weight loss. (This is also why very heavy and obese people can lose weight faster - because they can more easily create a large deficit).
If you have a low starting body fat (ie, a lean person trying to get even leaner), then you're at higher risk of losing lean tissue, so it's safer to use a more conservative deficit and lose weight more slowly. (This is why bodybuilders intentionally lose weight slowly, usually aiming for only a pound a week when prepping for competitions).

Someone who is very overweight or obese might be able to handle a deficit between 30% and 40% under maintenance, but that's very aggressive, and there's more risk of negative side effects from such severe calorie restriction, including being unpleasant (more hunger and low energy can be problems). Deficits of 50% are so extreme, they're classified as semi-starvation diets and are potentially muscle-wasting and unhealthy if not medically supervised (not recommended).

Progressive resistance weight training and high protein intakes help protect lean body mass when you're in a deficit, but always keep in mind that the more extreme the deficit, the higher the risk of muscle loss.

When choosing your deficit, you could also take into account how much urgency you have to reach a fat loss goal by a certain deadline. If you have a specific date when you need to look your leanest and that date is closing in, then it makes sense to take the more aggressive calorie deficit. If you don't have a deadline, then there's no need to feel rushed and accept higher risks and suffer more hunger - it makes more sense to take a more modest deficit.

3. Always use a measurement system and adjust your calorie deficit based on your actual weekly results. 

Once you've done your initial calorie calculations and established a baseline, it's vitally important to understand that this calorie level is only your starting point. Once you're off and running, from week to week, you need to measure and track your progress (weight, body composition and appearance), and adjust your calories in and calories out according to your actual real world results.

Learning how to adjust caloric intake (nutrition) and caloric expenditure (training) week to week based on results is a critical skill to learn, because this is how you handle that conundrum we mentioned earlier about energy balance being dynamic.

The amount of calories you require today may not be the same three or six months from now. If your activity level changes substantially, your calorie needs will change. It could go up or down. When you've been in a deficit a long time, your metabolic rate can decrease so you don't burn as many calories, even at rest (known as adaptive thermogenesis).

If your body weight changes substantially, your calorie needs will also change. In general, as you lose weight, your calorie needs go down because it takes fewer and fewer calories to move and maintain a smaller body.

After a typical 40-pound weight loss, you will need 300 to 350 fewer calories to maintain your weight than when you started, if all else remains equal. This means your rate of weight loss will automatically decrease by two-thirds of a pound per week if you fail to adjust your calories consumed (eat less) or increase your calories burned (exercise more) according to your new body size. Researchers call this "The energy gap" and it explains slow weight loss, it partially explains fat loss plateaus, and it largely explains why it's hard to keep weight off after you lose it.

On the other hand, knowing that your calorie needs can change doesn't mean you should re-calculate them every day. Instead, do your calculations once at the beginning of your fat loss phase when you're initially setting up your program. Follow your prescribed calorie level with extreme diligence for the first week or two, to establish a baseline. After that, adjust your plan (how many calories you eat and how many calories you burn) according to your weekly results. This is known as the Burn The Fat, Feed the Muscle "Feedback Loop Method."

If you get the results you wanted and expected, don't change a thing in your plan. Keep using the same plan as long as it keeps working.

If two weeks go by with no visible or measurable fat loss, or your fat loss is slower than you predicted, that means you did not have a calorie deficit or you lost part of your calorie deficit. The question is why?

To answer that, the first thing you do is an honest assessment of your compliance rate (were you following your plan strictly enough?) This is actually the cause of most plateaus - you lost some or all of your calorie deficit because you exercised less and or you ate more than you planned. You may be aware that you made these mistakes or they may have been unconscious, but the result is the same either way - slow fat loss or no fat loss.

When you're looking back at your compliance level, remember that you have to maintain your deficit over time to see the fat loss accumulate to a visible and measurable amount. If you're in a small deficit on the weekdays, but in a big surplus on the weekends, you can end up with no deficit at all for the whole week and you're starting from scratch on Monday. 

It's easy to fool yourself by remembering five days of good discipline and thinking that was good compliance, but never forget that one weekend or even a single day of big mistakes can wipe out a whole week of progress. Consistency is everything.

If you realize low compliance was the problem, you get stricter about following your plan, start tracking your calories and macros more meticulously, and get back to work another week.

After an honest assessment, if you're sure you followed your original plan (good compliance), but still didn't lose fat, or you lost less than you predicted, it means your body has adapted or your energy balance equation has changed. You're not burning as many calories as you used to, and you don't have the deficit you used to.

In this case, you reduce your calories in (eat less), increase your calories out (exercise more), or use a combination of both. This will put you back into a calorie deficit.

There are some occasions, usually after prolonged diet phases, where your body has become very depleted and your metabolism suppressed, when your best bet is to stop dieting and go back to maintenance calories for a while. But the harsh reality is, you can almost always count on needing to eat less, exercise more, or both as the months pass on a fat loss diet program. You rarely reach a long-term fat loss goal without having to make these adjustments along the way.

Summing It Up, Simply: You must have a calorie deficit to lose fat, period. 


Your optimal calorie deficit could be anywhere from 15-30% below maintenance and this is the official recommendation for fat loss. Setting your deficit based on a percentage instead of on an absolute number like minus 500 or minus 1000 below maintenance is more customized and less likely to give you a deficit that might be too big or too small.

There's no one-size-fits-all deficit. Deficits should be customized. When you're calculating your deficit, you can take into account your starting body fat, your personal goals, your risk tolerance for muscle loss, and the time available to reach your goal, to help you decide if you want a larger (more aggressive) deficit, or a smaller (more conservative deficit).

Once you set your initial deficit, be ultra-meticulous about tracking your calories during the first week or two so you can establish a baseline and make sure your estimated calorie target is really your actual intake. Adjust as necessary. Continue to adjust calories eaten versus calories burned as needed based on your results each week. Keep repeating this process and you're virtually guaranteed to reach your fitness goals.



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